Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data
The mean figure of daily murders each month in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that homicide data might not indicate improved national stability.
Marked Drop in Daily Averages
Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when the President took the leadership in September. This information was shared by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The outcome in killings that we’ve had during these past months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.
Recent Context and Government Strategy
Fierce drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics office.
That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. However, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings this year.
At a press conference in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”
The central components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:
- Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
- Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
- Enhanced collaboration between various departments.
Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations
Nevertheless, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is notably true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.
“This would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”
As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.
“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”
Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it may mask periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.
“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.
Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success
Where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per official data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.
“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.
Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration
However in spite of these measures, Mexico is still grappling with severe bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.
Weeks later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.
“The government presents [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.