A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
